Rates go up, rates go down.  Catch them while you can.

After Wednesday’s mortgage market rally drove rates down by a bunch, Thursday’s sell-off pushed them right back up.

This has been a common pattern in the skittish world of mortgage rates this year.

With the U.S. economy still teetering between recession and growth, markets are looking for signals anywhere it can find them.  Thursday’s clue came from a government report showing that more Americans are collecting unemployment benefits than at any point in history.

Strangely, mortgage rates rose on the news.

We call it “strange” because weak economic data has tended to draw mortgage rates lower lately to the benefit of prospective home buyers and would-be refinancers. Lower rates make homes more affordable.

Thursday, though, the pattern broke. 

The main reason why mortgage rates rose Thursday isn’t because of the employment report or any other piece of data.  Rates rose Thursday for the same reason that they had dropped the day prior — the Federal Reserve. 

On Wednesday, the released minutes from the Fed’s last meeting suggested that the group might make a larger mortgage market intervention.  On Thursday, in the face of worsening jobs data, markets bet the Fed wouldn’t. 

Mortgage rate shoppers, unfortunately, got caught in the crosshairs.

Rates can — and do — change quickly, without warning.  And, thus far this year, the changes have been extra sudden.  This is one reason why it’s often prudent to lock a mortgage rate as soon as you find one that’s agreeable.  Wait too long, and it could be gone.

(Source:Our lending partner, Tom Parke, at MetLife Home Loans)

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Pleasanton Market Update for April 2009

The month of April showed a strong improvement in the number of homes that went under contract. 64 single family homes went under contract in April- a significant increase over the average of 33 homes going under contract in each of the 1st three months of 2009.

How many homes were for sale in Pleasanton during the month of April?

April 2009 showed a 6% increase in the number of homes on the market as compared with April 2008.

There were 354 homes (248 single family homes) for sale last month as compared to 333 homes in April of last year.

Of these how many were new listings for the month?

115 homes were new to the market in April of this year as compared to 118 new listings in April 2008, representing a 3% decrease in number of new listings from this same time last year.

How many homes went under contract in the month of April?

The sales pace in April picked up considerably compared to previous months this year. 64 homes went pending last month compared to 66 pendings in April 2008. This represents a 6% decrease in sales for the same month last year.

At the current pace of sales, what is the month’s supply of inventory?

At the current pace of sales, Pleasanton has approximately 3.9 months of inventory on the market (otherwise referred to as the unsold inventory index). In April 2008, there was 3.5 months of inventory on the market.

The 3.9 months is a statistic calculated by the number of homes available for sale at the end of April divided by the total number of sales in the month of April. 248 divided by 64 sales =3.9 months.

Pleasanton’s unsold inventory index is down substantially from as recently as February of this year when the unsold inventory index stood at nearly 10 months. Many experts believe that anything under 6 months is considered a sellers’ market.

In what price range are homes selling?

80% of the sales activity is happening in the under $1 million dollar price range where the unsold inventory index is under 2.5 months. In contrast, homes over $1 million dollars are showing a much greater supply of inventory with the highest being 20 months for homes in excess of $2 million. This is due in part to the difficulty of obtaining financing for loan amounts in excess of $729,000.

Mohr Park Market In a Minute

How many homes are on the market in Pleasanton?

As of 4/29/2009, there were 242single family homes available for sale in Pleasanton.  Since the beginning of this year, the inventory has increased at a pattern consistent with the 1^st quarter of the last two years.  By mid April, the inventory had increased to 255.  However, the last two weeks of April have seen strong sales activity with 60 “pending” transactions in April.

How many homes are on the market in Mohr Park?

As of 4/29/2009, only three homes are available for sale in Mohr Park.  This includes the Glens, the Gardens and the Estates of Mohr Park.  Unfortunately the two homes on Rheem Drive are “short sale” transactions so both prices are far below market value.

*Short Sales are distress sales where the current owners mortgage debt exceeds the current market value. Negotiations are in progress with the lender to accept less than the amount owed to complete the sale and avoid foreclosure.

How many homes have gone “pending” in Pleasanton in 2009?.
 

May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan09	Feb09	Mar09
55	50	44	52	58	31	22	25	33	30	43

As of 4/29/2009, 60homes have gone to “pending” status during the month of April. This will represent the highest number of monthly “pendings” since April of 2008.

How many homes have gone “pending” in Mohr Park?

1987 Rheem	List Price $519,000	Sales Price	Calliope(Glens)	1314 SF	2 BR	2.5 Bath	COE Date6/2/2009
2092 Eilene Dr	$599,750		Woodstar(Glens)	1586 SF	3 BR	3  Bath	COE Date5/31/2009
2223 Oakland	$525,000	Short sale	Woodstar(Glens)	1586 SF	3 BR	3 BATH	COE DATEUnknown

 

No Mohr Park homes have closed escrow thus far in 2009.