Pleasanton Market in A Minute

August 2008

The topic of short Sales and foreclosures are frequently in the headlines these days. 

Lenders started foreclosure proceedings on a record number of California homeowners last quarter, the result of declining home values and the rampant spoilage of a batch of especially risky home loans made in late 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported.

Mortgage servicers recorded 121,341 “notices of default” during the April-through-June period. That was up 6.6% from a revised 113,809 for this year’s first quarter, and up 124.9% from 53,943 in the second-quarter of 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 40% of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 5.4%.

Let’s take a look at the numbers in the Tri-Valley Area to see how things stack up against the California State Total of 40%. 

As you can see Pleasanton’s numbers are comparatively lower than Dublin and Livermore.  A closer look at the breakdown between Pleasanton single family homes versus townhomes and condominiums indicates that the Pleasanton single family category is holding up very well.

The less REO/Short Sale activity should mean the less downward pressure on home values.  As you can see from the table below, home values in the single family category have dropped only slightly compared to the town home/condo category.

Have we hit the bottom of the market? The small increase in defaults from the first to the second quarter may indicate that we’re nearing a plateau. We won’t know until the end of the year, but it may be that some lenders are starting to prioritize workouts with homeowners instead of grinding things through the foreclosure process

Pleasanton Market in a Minute

July 2008

How many homes are currently on the market in Pleasanton?

Inventory levels are up for single family homes from this time last year. There are currently 283 single family homes for sale in Pleasanton.  This is up 32% (214) from one year ago. Inventory levels have more than doubled compared to the beginning of 2008 which began with 135 homes for sale.

Are home sales increasing or decreasing?

Sales activity in July is on par with last month.  This month, 40 homes have been reported pending, as compared to 42 homes in June. In July 2007, 55 homes were pending. This represents a 20% decrease from this same period a year ago.

What’s happening with townhomes and condominiums?

There are currently 57 units for sale compared to 80 units at this time last year. Sales activity is comparable to last year.  There are 12 units pending this month. 11 units sold in July 2007. The median sales price for townhomes/condominiums for June 2008 was $460,00, compared to a median price of $582,500 in June 2007. This represents a 21% decrease.

What’s Roy’s perspective on the market?

Inventory levels are up and sales activity is down. However, the median sales prices for single family homes in Pleasanton is holding steady, with only a 3.5% decrease from this same period last year.  In June 2008, the median home price was $830,000. In June 2007, the median home price was $859,000. At the current selling pace, Pleasanton has 5 months of inventory on the market. The average number of days on the market for June 2008 was 60, down slightly from year to date days on market of 70. Sales Price vs. List Price for the month of June was at 95.54%. These numbers have significant relevance when compared to other local markets. Hayward, for example, had 767 homes on the market at the end of June, a seven month supply of inventory. The median home sales price for this area was at $329,900 with a year to date days on market average of 100 days. Livermore averages about 89 days on the market with an median home price of $529,000. At the end of June, there were 351 homes on the market in this area.

In real estate, it’s important to look closely at our local markets to truly gauge what is happening. Pleasanton is holding steady compared with other nearby communities that have significantly more inventory, longer days on market, and lower median home prices. 

Mid Year Market Update

The first six months of 2008showed mixed results for our Pleasanton Real Estate Market.  Overall the market appears to be searching for some semblance of normality.  Let’s call it the new normal.

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:  Inventory levels are up for single family homes from this time last year.  There are currently 253 single family homes available for sale. That is up 21% (209) from one year ago. The year started out with 135 and has nearly doubled since then.   For the moment inventory levels are actually pulling back slightly.  The month of June started out with 262 homes. 

Sales activity for June 2008 vs June 2007

 Sales activity for Jan-June 2008 vs. Jan-June 2007 

As you can see, the number of sales is down dramatically from the same period of one year ago.  This is at least partly due to the difficulty associated with obtaining financing.

TOWNHOMES & CONDOMINIUMS:  Inventory levels are fairly flat from one year ago.  There are currently 69 townhomes and condominiums available for sale.  This is down slightly from one year ago (72). 

At the current pace of sales Pleasanton presently has an unsold inventory index of 8 months. This is a number used to measure the strength of sales activity in a market place.  The bright spot for this category is that inventory levels have remained very flat since one year ago.  This is very significant since other communities are seeing a dramatic increase in inventory.

SUMMARY

Although the number of sales compared to the same period a year ago is down significantly, the pace of current sales activity is fairly stable relative to inventory levels.  At the current rate of sales, June should end with approximately 50 sales for single family homes. 

 At the current level of inventory of 250, that represents about five months worth of inventory.   The next two months should give us an idea of what direction the market is headed.  There are many potential buyers going through open houses and many of my Realtor colleagues are busy writing offers.  Financing restrictions are loosening up a bit although rates have bumped up recently.