Posted on January 22nd, 2009
Filed Under:
Communities
2008-The Year in Review
How many homes are on the market? As of 01/20/2009, there were 199 single family homes available for sale in Pleasanton. There were 180 homes available for sale as of 12/31/2008 as compared to 136 as of 12/31/2007.
How many homes sold in Pleasanton in 2008?

What do these numbers mean? Although the number of sales is down 28% from a year ago the median price has only dropped 4%. This is significant compared to other nearby markets such as Livermore where sales actually increased by 4% yet the median price dropped 24% in 2008.
How are distress sales impacting the median price?
Distress sales are properties that have been sold as REO’s or Short Sales. REO’s stands for “real estate owned”-these are properties that have been taken back by the bank in a foreclosure process. Short Sales are properties where the current owner is attempting to sell the house for less than the amount owed by working with the bank to avoid a foreclosure.
As you can see from the table below, the higher the percentage of distress sales, the greater the drop in the median price in the various communities of the Tri-Valley as well as Brentwood:
|
SOLDS
|
Year
|
# of sold homes
|
median
|
difference
|
difference
|
REO or
|
% of
|
|
Single family
|
|
2008/2007
|
price
|
previous yr
|
%
|
Short Sale
|
Total sales
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pleasanton
|
2008
|
456
|
$800,000
|
-$29,000
|
-3%
|
60
|
13%
|
|
|
2007
|
636
|
$829,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dublin
|
2008
|
273
|
$630,000
|
-$100,000
|
-14%
|
103
|
38%
|
|
|
2007
|
292
|
$730,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
Livermore
|
2008
|
754
|
$478,500
|
-$151,500
|
-24%
|
363
|
48%
|
|
|
2007
|
722
|
$630,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brentwood
|
2008
|
1047
|
$360,000
|
-$140,000
|
-28%
|
876
|
84%
|
|
|
2007
|
468
|
$500,000
|
|
|
|
|
Pleasanton, for example, had the least amount of distress sales - 60 out of 456 or 13%. In 2008, the median price dropped from $829,000 to $800,000 - a 4% decline from 2007. On the other end of the spectrum, Brentwood had the highest percentage of distress sales 876 out of 1047 or 84%. In 2008, the median price for Brentwood dropped from $500,000 at the end of 2007 to $360,000 at the end of 2008 or 28%.
When will we be done with distress sales?
As you can see the number of distress sales on the market has a very adverse effect on the median price for that city. There is general agreement among all the experts in the industry that until all of the distress sales are done, prices will not bottom out. There is a serious effort to assist homeowners in distress with loan modification assistance that will restructure mortgage payments and allow families to remain in their homes. If this effort is successful, it will most certainly help to expedite the completion of distress sales.
There is also the school of thought that there is yet another wave of “ALT-A” loans that are due to convert from fixed to adjustable in 2009 and 2010. Many of these borrowers will not be able to manage their mortgage payments when these loans convert. These types of loans may be more prevalent in cities such as Pleasanton.
Which city has seen the greatest drop in median price since the peak of the market?
According to the statistics published in the local multiple listing service, it appears the city with the greatest drop in median price is Brentwood with 40%, while the city with the smallest drop has been Pleasanton with 4%.
|
Year
|
Median Price
|
%
|
Median Price
|
%
|
Median Price
|
%
|
Median Price
|
%
|
|
|
Pleasanton
|
Change
|
Dublin
|
Change
|
Livermore
|
Change
|
Brentwood
|
Change
|
|
2004
|
$720,000
|
from
|
$655,000
|
from
|
$540,000
|
from
|
$485,000
|
from
|
|
2005
|
$845,000
|
the peak
|
$779,000
|
the peak
|
$635,000
|
the peak
|
$598,000
|
the peak
|
|
2006
|
$830,000
|
|
$743,000
|
|
$635,000
|
|
$595,000
|
|
|
2007
|
$829,000
|
|
$730,000
|
|
$630,000
|
|
$500,000
|
|
|
2008
|
$800,000
|
-5%
|
$630,000
|
-19%
|
$478,000
|
-25%
|
$360,000
|
-40%
|
Do these statistics hold true for my home?
It is important to bear in mind that these are statistical averages based on the total number of sales for the individual cities. Within each city these figures will not necessarily apply across the board. Certain neighborhoods and price ranges are more impacted than others. For example, there is some clear evidence that prices have dropped substantially more than the 5% citywide average in certain price ranges in Pleasanton. The table below shows the number of sales and the median prices for the following group of homes: All Pleasanton homes sold between 2004 and 2008 that included at least 4500-6000 square feet of living space and were built from 1990 through 2008.
|
Year
|
Median Price
|
%
|
number of
|
|
|
Pleasanton
|
Change
|
sales
|
|
2004
|
$1,965,000
|
from
|
21
|
|
2005
|
$2,175,000
|
the peak
|
27
|
|
2006
|
$2,125,000
|
|
25
|
|
2007
|
$2,127,000
|
|
36
|
|
2008
|
$1,780,000
|
-18%
|
25
|
It would seem that that the higher end of the market has seen a greater drop in the median price than other price brackets. You can see from the sales activity below that the higher end of the market has seen a much slower pace of sales in the last 90 days:
|
Price range
|
Currently available
|
#of sales per mo last 90 days
|
# of months of inventory at current monthly sales rate
|
|
Less than 1.5 million
|
187 homes
|
30 average per month
|
6 months of inventory
|
|
More than 1.5 million
|
54 homes
|
Less than 3 average per month
|
20 months of inventory
|
Where are sales and prices headed in 2008?
Of course only time will tell. One indicator of value would be the percentage of distress sales in the number of homes that are currently “PENDING” or under contract waiting to close escrow.
|
|
|
(as of 1/20/08)
|
# of sales
|
|
|
|
PENDINGS
|
|
# current
|
REO or
|
% of
|
difference
|
|
Single Family
|
|
pendings
|
Short Sale
|
Total sales
|
from 2008
|
|
Pleasanton
|
|
40
|
17
|
43%
|
29%
|
|
Dublin
|
|
55
|
40
|
73%
|
35%
|
|
Livermore
|
|
142
|
113
|
80%
|
31%
|
|
Brentwood
|
|
189
|
180
|
95%
|
12%
|
Right now Pleasanton has 40 properties that are currently “PENDING”- 17 of the 40 are distress sales. That represents 43% of current pendings or a 29% increase over the percentage of distress sales for all closed sales in 2008. This could be an indicator that we will see more distress sales. Another indicator would be the percentage of distress sales for those homes currently on the market:
|
|
|
(as of 1/20/08)
|
# of sales
|
|
|
Active
|
|
# current
|
REO or
|
% of
|
|
|
|
Actives
|
Short Sale
|
Total sales
|
|
Pleasanton
|
|
200
|
37
|
19%
|
|
Dublin
|
|
91
|
48
|
53%
|
|
Livermore
|
|
283
|
132
|
47%
|
|
Brentwood
|
|
365
|
281
|
77%
|
Since the current percentage of distress sales in Pleasanton for homes that are currently on the market is 19%, it would seem to indicate that at least for now the percentage of distress sales will increase slightly from last year’s levels but not dramatically as has occurred in some of the other areas. Again the big unknown is how many homeowners in distress have yet to come on the market.
Of the 54 homes that are categorized as distress sales, the breakdown in prices looks like this:
|
Up to $500,000
|
11
|
20%
|
|
$500,000 to $750,000
|
31
|
57%
|
|
$750,000 to $1 mil
|
8
|
15%
|
|
$ 1 million plus
|
4
|
7%
|